2025 Special Education Outlook: Trends and Challenges

Whether you’re an administrator, educator, counselor,  parent, or community member, being aware of the challenges and trends in special education can help you prepare, advocate, and make decisions that support the youth in your community.  From a new administration to new technology, we predict 2025 will be an interesting year for special education in the U.S.

How might the Trump administration impact special education?

With President-elect Trump re-entering the White House this month, there’s uncertainty about what changes he’ll make regarding education funding, eliminating the Department of Education, and expanding school choice. There’s a lot at stake for special education and disability rights as a whole, but whether or not his proposed changes will be implemented, and if so, how soon, is still up in the air. 

Funding Changes

Public schools currently receive about 14% of their funding from the federal government with the rest coming from state and local governments. Federal funding is used to fund programs like Title I and IDEA, which assist schools with a large population of students from low-income households and provide funding for special education programs. The funding changes suggested by Trump and/or Project 2025 (the unofficial policy document created by The Heritage Foundation) could impact funding in these areas and more.

Greater state control over funds

Project 2025 suggests converting some IDEA funding into block grants that would be distributed directly to states to allocate to districts and “any lawful education purpose under state law” as they see fit. Without the federal oversight of IDEA and rules governing how the funds must be spent, there’s potential for inconsistencies in education quality, reduced accountability, and inequities in how resources are distributed throughout the state. This could leave students in underfunded areas without access to the resources they need to be successful in school.

Cuts to schools based on curriculum

In an effort to eliminate education that teaches “critical race theory, transgender insanity, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content to our children,” Trump has stated that he will cut federal funding to schools that include these topics in their curriculum. This means that schools that teach about slavery, gender identity, sexuality, and related topics may have to rely more heavily on funding from other sources. 

While this funding cut does not directly target special education, it can have a ripple effect. If schools continue teaching those topics and lose federal funding, they may have to make cuts to programs that benefit all students, including those in special education. Students whose identity intersects with those topics may experience erasure from the curriculum, which can be detrimental to a student’s self-esteem and self-image. At this point it’s unclear whether or not Trump will have the authority to enforce these cuts, even with Republican control of all three branches of government.

Elimination of the Department of Education

Trump has said repeatedly that he’s going to prioritize abolishing the U.S. Department of Education (ED). The roles that the ED plays, such as overseeing the enforcement of IDEA compliance and Title I funding for low-income schools would be shifted to other departments. This type of change can potentially cause education-centered civil rights cases and compliance issues to go unaddressed as these responsibilities are divided into agencies that do not solely focus on education. However, eliminating the ED would be a difficult and lengthy process due to the need for bipartisan support to pass.

School Choice

Conversations about school choice are nothing new. Supporters argue that school choice gives families the power to provide the education they feel is best for their children. Opponents argue that it diverts funding away from public schools, which can lead to lack of access to resources and equitable opportunities for students who remain in public school.

For some students with disabilities, access to an equitable and appropriate education outside of public school is limited or unavailable. Private schools are not held to the same requirements as public schools under IDEA and are often not required to provide or follow IEPs. They may use methods to discriminate against students with disabilities by admitting students based on them meeting specific academic and behavioral requirements or requiring an interview, essay, or other criteria that create barriers to admission. Beyond admission discrimination, many private schools are not equipped to provide the level of support and services students with disabilities may need. As a result, students may not receive the same level of accommodations, individualized instruction, or specialized services that they would in public schools.

However, families who live in communities with adequate resources and funding to support their needs may find school choice incredibly beneficial. This can provide access to smaller class sizes and specialized programs, allowing for them to receive a more individualized experience based on their specific learning needs.  But for students who live in rural or lower-income communities, school choice may reduce funding for the one place that is designed to ensure all students are accepted, supported, and educated—public school.

‍

Please note: None of these changes have been implemented and must go through the proper legislative processes to take effect.

‍

On a more predictable note, here are three trends that will continue throughout 2025 (and beyond):

More Emphasis on Neurodiversity-Affirming Practices

As educators become more knowledgeable about neurodiversity and the importance of viewing neurodivergence as a difference rather than a deficit, there will be an increase in focus on neurodiversity-affirming practices. In schools, neurodiversity-affirming practices could include writing IEPs that highlight student strengths, prioritizing professional development to better equip educators to support neurodivergent students, designing lessons that align with Universal Design for Learning (UDL) principles, and implementing behavior management strategies that address the underlying needs of students instead of punishing them.

‍

Widespread Adoption of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was one of the most talked-about topics in 2024. While last year was spent learning more about different AI tools, debating about its potential and ethics, and exploring different uses, this year we’ll see more and more schools throughout the country accept and adopt AI as part of their everyday practices.

One of the best ways to support students with disabilities is to support the educators and staff members who work hard to meet their needs. AI offers that support by helping educators with administrative tasks like developing lessons, organizing information, and researching new strategies to use with students. These uses can reduce the time educators spend on planning and preparation, which is often unpaid. The special education teacher shortage has persisted for years and worsened after COVID, so tools that reduce educators’ workloads can help address some of the challenges that lead to them feeling overwhelmed and overworked. AI can also assist with tasks like adapting lessons to include individual accommodations and modifications, helping with IEP creation and documentation, and analyzing student progress data.

For students with disabilities, AI can enhance their learning experience and access to resources and opportunities that were limited in the past. AI-powered speech-to text and text-to-speech can support students with communication needs and help them participate in classroom discussions and other activities. Some AI tools can identify students’ skill gaps and personalize their learning while allowing them to work at their own pace. For example, AI can create practice problems for one student who may be struggling with a math concept while creating more challenging practice problems for another student who has already mastered the concept. This can also benefit family members who often reinforce learning at home.

AI can also support students in strengthening their executive functioning skills. Students can use AI to prioritize tasks, create visual planners, create and manage their schedules, organize assignments, and break down large tasks into smaller, more manageable ones.

Artificial intelligence is still fairly new in education, which means there will likely be some growing pains as schools learn how to use it responsibly. Administrators and educators who use it must be aware of the privacy concerns, bias, and hallucinations (AI’s tendency to make up information if it doesn’t know the answer) that can negatively impact students’ learning experiences. 

Teacher Shortage Continues

The number of students with IEPs continues to increase each year while more special education teachers leave the classroom and fewer enter. This year, districts will start (or continue) using creative solutions to ensure all students receive the education they are entitled to. Some districts may address these challenges by offering higher pay and retention bonuses, lowering entry requirements to become a teacher, and expanding paraprofessional roles. Alternative certification programs will become more popular as a way to get more special education teachers into the classrooms more quickly. However, these programs often require the educators to “hit the ground running” and learn on the job, which can leave them feeling underprepared. 

Tools like Ava by Social Cipher are especially useful for supporting districts facing staffing challenges as they help reduce the workload on educators while still ensuring students learn. The online game and curriculum provide social and emotional (SEL) education to neurodivergent students either independently or with the support of an educator—whether that’s a general education teacher, special education teacher, substitute, or related service provider. Many schools use Ava as a tool to support IEP goal progress, as an MTSS Tier II Intervention, or simply as an SEL curriculum. By seeking out and adopting tools that allow educators to provide support without needing to be hands-on all the time, districts and schools will be better equipped to support all students, even with limited time and staffing. 

‍

Sources

Associated Press. “Artificial Intelligence and Students with Disabilities: Emerging Innovations.” Link

CNHI News. “Project 2025 and Its Implications for Special Education.” Link

Donald J. Trump Official Website. “Agenda 47: President Trump’s Ten Principles for Great Schools Leading to Great Jobs.” Link

Education Week. “How Trump’s Policies Could Affect Special Education.” Link

K-12 Dive. “School Funding Under President Trump.” Link

PBS NewsHour. “Trump Promised to End ‘Wokeness’ in Education. He Has Promised to Use Federal Funds as Leverage.” Link

PBS NewsHour. “What’s Driving a Special Education Teacher Shortage and How Schools Are Responding.” Link

Project 2025. “Playbook.” Link

Time Magazine. “How Special Olympics Uses AI to Support Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.” Link

Verify This. “Project 2025 Would Not End IEPs for Students with Disabilities.” Link

‍